We are currently being bombarded by news reports that claim the sky is falling on Vancouver real estate. I think that we need to take all of this with a grain of salt. It’s important to realize that the media tends to jump on the bandwagon and overexaggerate trends in either direction. When things are good, they pump them up and inflate them out of proportion with the fundamentals. Likewise, when things are bad the pessimism and fearmongering keep people focused on the news.

However, what I hadn’t realized and what I wanted to draw to the attention of my readers was the mistruths that are espoused by the media. On Thursday evening, there was a news report on Global TV’s New Hour on the Vancouver real estate market. It’s available still online right here. In this one Global TV newsclip by Ted Chernecki there were two major points that were presented as fact but which are entirely untrue.

The primary news that motivated the piece was an economic forecast for the Greater Vancouver real estate market written by Helmut Pastrick of Central 1 Credit Union (while it’s been talked about in the media, I can’t find a link to it online but here’s their website). Pastrick’s prediction was that we’d see a 13% decline in prices in 2009, and 5% in 2010 before the market recovered (not to mention the 12% reduction we’ve already seen since March of this year).

So far so good? Leaving aside the accuracy or usefulness of predictions (and the BCREA will be releasing their own prediction this coming week), what I have a problem with was how the particular Global TV news piece interpreted that press release. Chernecki gave an example of a $1.5 Million home put on the market two days ago. If the predictions were accurate, this home would be worth 30% less in two and a half years and be worth only $1 Million in 2010.

Right? Wrong. We’ve already seen a 12% drop in average prices in Greater Vancouver. That would mean between today and 2010, Pastrick is predicting a further 18% drop in the market. Thus, the $1.5 million home would be worth $1.27 million and NOT $1 million as Ted Chernecki claims.

Secondly, the statistics that are quoted in the news clip are completely false. They claim that in the city of Vancouver there were a total of 2,000 listings and 68 sales. These numbers match no real data that I can find. The facts are that there were 2130 new listings, 6095 total listings and 464 sales in Vancouver East and Vancouver West in the month of September 2008. You can follow the link to read my blog post on the September 2008 Vancouver real estate statistics.

What do you think?

If you are interested in the truth, and would like to see the numbers reported with accuracy and honesty then you can follow my Vancouver real estate blog. I report on the monthly statistics released by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver, as well as my own weekly reporting of the numbers for Vancouver East and Vancouver West.

If you are thinking of buying or selling, or just have questions, contact me here or send me a quick email.

Copyright © 2008 by Sebastian Albrecht, Vancouver Realtor with Royal LePage Westside ”Beware the Media Hype on Vancouver Real Estate”

Photo from CBC

I’d heard rumours throughout the day, but it had yet to be verified. Late this evening, news reports confirmed the rumours that indeed work on the Ritz-Carlton (a proposed 60 story condo development across the street from the Shangri-La) had been halted.

According to the news reports from CBC and CTV, the developer is halting construction because of redesign considerations (most notably on the parkade), and not because of the financial crisis that is having global repercussions. If construction truly is being momentarily paused, it’s interesting that the advertising put up by the condo marketing company has all been removed.

The positive spin on this news is that the people that bought into this project might have their money freed up to purchase elsewhere in the city. For instance, may high-end homes will soon be coming up at the Shangri-La. However, given that the developer is calling this only a “pause” in construction I wonder how quickly their deposits will be returned.

The project marketer says that 50 percent of the project had been presold. The hotel was to occupy the lower floors and there were to be 123 high end condo units on the upper floors from $2.5 million - $10 million and the penthouse at $28 million. Prices were up to $2,000/sq ft.

Another Holborn project, The Hills, is also “delayed” until the new year. This project is to be located at Nanaimo and Broadway with 280 units in a high-rise and mid-rise tower.

View the CBC article Ritz-Carlton Condo Project Stalls in Vancouver

View the CTV article Work Halted on Ritz-Carlton Condo-Hotel Tower

Copyright © 2008 by Sebastian Albrecht, Vancouver Realtor with Royal LePage Westside ”News Reports Claim Ritz-Carlton Condo Construction Halted”

It’s almost time to get out and vote. Just one more day before we all (hopefully), exercise our civic duty and put our stamp on the future of our country (and community). Don’t forget to vote on October 14th, 2008! It’s quick, easy and painless.

I’ve added a few links here that might help some undecided voters make up their minds.

General News Media Election Coverage:

CanWest
CBC
CTV
Georgia Straight

The Globe and Mail has a great resource for each riding. Not only do they cover each candidate, but they also have great links to articles from around the web about each specific riding:

Vancouver Centre
Vancouver East
Vancouver Kingsway
Vancouver Quadra
Vancouver South

I didn’t have time to attend my local all candidates debate myself, but thankfully there was someone with a video camera and an internet connection that posted the information up to YouTube for the Vancouver-Kingsway riding. Unfortunately, Vancouver-Kingsway’s debate is the only one that appears to have been documented in such a way. Too bad, I think that it’s fabulous to have this information out there.

All Candidate Debate Videos on YouTube

Voting Information:

Elections Canada

Copyright © 2008 by  Sebastian Albrecht, Vancouver Realtor with Royal LePage Westside  ”Canadian Federal Election Information”

Last week the Bank of Canada lowered it’s overnight lending rate by -0.5%. Typically, Canadian financial institutions follow suit by matching the change in their prime lending rate. Instead, the Canadian banks lowered their prime lending rates by only 0.25%. The banks have essentially padded their own profits as a result. They are charging customers more for money that they are obtaining at a lower cost.

More interesting is what has been happening with the variable rate mortgage. Over the past few years this mortgage package has been one of the most popular options. Banks offered the flexible variable rate mortgage at a discount to the prime lending rate. Up to about a year ago, that discount was as much as -1.0%. Over the last year we saw that discount steadily shrink until it was recently down to about 0.3%.

Most banks quietly did away with any discount whatsoever (meaning customers would pay the prime rate with a variable rate mortgage) in the past week. Some financial institutions have actually done away with the variable rate mortgage altogether.

This is another indication of money becoming more difficult to come by. The already conservative Canadian banks are circling their wagons, refusing to take on risk and padding their profits wherever possible. Dropping the discounted variable rate mortgage is an indication that the banks feel that continued rate cuts are likely.

The silver lining here is that long term interest rates should also decline and thus the fixed rate mortgages should become cheaper for consumers. With house prices declining in Vancouver, and the cost of borrowing slipping as well, the investor and first-time buyer in Vancouver is in potentially a very profitable position. We just have less choice in the current marketplace when it comes to borrowing money.

Copyright © 2008 by  Sebastian Albrecht, Vancouver Realtor with Royal LePage Westside ”How the Credit Crunch is Affecting Vancouver Real Estate”

Monday and Tuesday of next week (February 25th and 26th) is the 4th annual BC Real Estate Convention. This is a great event to stay on top of the local real estate market.

 You’ll have an opportunity to speak to a diverse group of professionals involved in real estate, from Realtors to policy makers. There are also free seminars (although I can’t find information on what those seminars will be).

 There are three reasons to come to the convention:

1. It’s a great opportunity to learn and network. 
2. Admission is free.
3. You can come and say hello to me. I’ll be at the Royal LePage booth from 2pm - 4pm on Tuesday, February 26th.

The Vancouver Sun wrote an article about the BC Real Estate Convention. You can also find the official convention website here.

Sebastian Albrecht, Vancouver Realtor with Royal LePage Westside

Interested in learning more about the history of your home? Historian John Aitken is conducting a course on tracing the history of your Vancouver house. It will be held at the City of Vancouver Archives on February 27th from 7:30pm to 9:30pm. The cost is just $12.

 For more information, call the Vancouver Heritage Foundation at 604-264-9642.

Sebastian Albrecht, Vancouver Realtor with Royal LePage Westside

Media Release

(Vancouver, BC. January 9th, 2008): A new method of real estate marketing is beginning to take root, enabling realtors, their clients, as well as the public to take full advantage of the internet. Traditionally, marketing methods have involved “push” techniques such as mail-outs and cold-calling but the shift is toward the “pull” of neighborhood or building specific websites.

Sebastian Albrecht of Royal LePage Westside currently markets his business on three separate websites, including two that are specific to a building or development in Vancouver, BC. His latest website, www.KingEdwardVillage.ca already features assignments and listings in Tri-Power Developments King Edward Village development located at 1402 Kingsway and 4078 Knight St.

Further expansion of this website is planned to include rental listings as well floorplans.

View each of Sebastian Albrecht’s niche websites: www.SebastianAlbrecht.com, www.KingEdwardVillage.ca, www.TheQubeCondos.com.

Media Contact:

Sebastian Albrecht
(604)831-4837
salbrecht(at)royallepage.ca

Sebastian Albrecht, Vancouver Realtor with Royal LePage

This weekend is the annual Illuminares Lantern Festival at Trout Lake (John Hendry Park). It’s scheduled for Saturday, July 28th and begins at 7pm and culminates at 11pm with the fireworks. It will go forward despite the civic worker strike.

If you’ve never experienced this before, you are in for a treat. It’s a wonderful opportunity to celebrate the summer with your community and to simply have fun. There is dancing, singing, fireworks and fanciful lanterns.

The event is planned by the Public Dreams Society (which also puts on the Parade of Lost Souls) but it wouldn’t happen without the support and full participation of the community. You are more than welcome to attend and observe, but why not build your own lantern and bring it along? It’s a fun family activity….the kids absolutely love it…and when you see hundreds of beautiful lanterns alight dancing in the darkness around Trout Lake it can be magical.

This has to be one of my favorite events of the summer. Apparently, I’m not alone in this. With little more than word of mouth, this event is growing in popularity not just on Commercial Drive, but throughout Vancouver. Unfortunately, I’ll be out of town this weekend and so I will be unable to attend.

You can find more information about Illuminares here.